UK Foreign Secretary William Hague this week warned of an impending “Cold War” if Iran was allowed to continue its pursuit of nuclear weapons. However, to soften the blow, Mr Hague did insist that military action was not being considered.
Although direct military action is not being supported by Western governments, the sudden increase in Iran-related chatter by senior politicians points towards a gentle attempt to shape public opinion. This is not necessarily malicious, but simply an attempt to ensure the public (and oil prices) are not alarmed if an Iran-Israel conflict occurs.
Starting with the assassination of Nuclear scientists in Iran earlier this year, we are now witnessing the beginnings of a spiral of escalation that could lead to war. This was responded by “retaliation” attacks on Israeli diplomats in Thailand, an unsuccessful attempt to continue the covert warfare that has already begun. However, the next steps are far from covert. Iran’s dispatching of its warship, through the Suez canal is the strongest signal yet that further provocation by Israel and the West will not be treated passively any further.
What is next? We are reaching a point of no return in the relationship between Iran and the Western world. Most European leaders have been so far willing to support rudimentary sanctions but shown strong reluctance to any suggestions of severe action. This has really shifted the focus onto America and her closest allies such as Israel and the UK. Iran’s response to the latest EU sanctions is to halt oil exports before the restrictions take effect, showing a new proactive “response” to international hostility. Supported by the retaliation attacks on Israeli diplomats, my theory is that Iran has now been pushed to the edge of what it feels is wholly inappropriate treatment. Every attack, be it economic, covert or overt warfare will be reciprocated.
The UK and US economies are only just showing signs of recovery and with Obama heading towards elections, complications are unwelcome. Therefore a two-sided approach of preparing the public for the worst and tightening the reins on Israel’s ambitions is only logical. Unfortunately, the cynic within me believes these measures are only temporary. In the long term, Iran’s nuclear pursuit is something the US would prefer to eliminate. Once Obama has secured his second term as President, he will be granted the freedom to make unpopular and controversial decisions without the negative consequences. It is then that I believe Israel will be allowed to act as it desires, predictably destabilising a region already on the knife-edge. The only uncertainty is whether the name “New Cold War” will stick.
